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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Volos NFC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.92 xG and Levadiakos 1.33 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.75 / defence 1.22 against Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 26% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 46%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 44%, Levadiakos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Levadiakos's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.91 PPG, Levadiakos 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights