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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Larisa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Larisa outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Larisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 45% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Larisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 50%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Larisa's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Larisa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights