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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Lamia 3-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Lamia attack 0.70 / defence 1.38, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 50% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 53%, Lamia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.05 PPG, Lamia 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights