🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Volos NFC at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Lamia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Volos NFC and Lamia meet at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Volos NFC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Lamia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Lamia away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Volos NFC 3W, Lamia 1W, 5D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 3–1 with Volos NFC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 50% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 53% | Lamia 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.821 / defence 1.182 | Lamia attack 0.702 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 50% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 4.17. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights