Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Volos NFC and Lamia meet at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Volos NFC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lamia away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Volos NFC 3W, Lamia 1W, 5D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 3–1 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 50% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 53% | Lamia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.821 / defence 1.182 | Lamia attack 0.702 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 50% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 4.17. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 50% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Volos NFC 1.44 / Lamia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.821 / def 1.182 | Lamia attack 0.702 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lamia xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Lamia kick off?
Volos NFC vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Volos NFC 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Volos NFC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Lamia part of?
Volos NFC vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 50% chance of winning, Lamia a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Volos NFC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
Record (9 meetings): Volos NFC 3W | Draws 5 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Lamia in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Lamia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.82) and Lamia's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.70x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.74
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.91
Lamia xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.91 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 18W 15D 33L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 12W 15D 39L from 66 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Volos NFC against 0.77 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.00 PPG from 32 outings (8W 8D 16L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 9D 19L from 32 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.91 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Lamia in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 15D 33L in their last 66 games (1.05 PPG), while Lamia have gone 12W 15D 39L in their last 66 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Lamia away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamia away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Volos NFC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Volos NFC won 3-0 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Lamia?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 59%, Lamia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Volos NFC) and 53% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 28% of games; Lamia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 50% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Volos NFC's recent games and 53% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Lamia tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lamia in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Lamia 3-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Lamia attack 0.70 / defence 1.38, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 50% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 53%, Lamia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.05 PPG, Lamia 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.