Volos NFC 0-2 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Kallithea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 9 as Volos NFC welcome Kallithea to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kallithea stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kallithea have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Volos NFC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 1 for Kallithea and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kallithea trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 41% versus Kallithea 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 47% | Kallithea 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.23 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.825 / defence 1.177 | Kallithea attack 0.777 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 26 Kallithea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Kallithea 30%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Kallithea 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Kallithea 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Kallithea 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Volos NFC 1.23 / Kallithea 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.825 / def 1.177 | Kallithea attack 0.777 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Kallithea xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Kallithea kick off?
Volos NFC vs Kallithea kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Volos NFC 0 - 2 Kallithea.
Where is Volos NFC vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Kallithea part of?
Volos NFC vs Kallithea is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, Kallithea a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Volos NFC and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kallithea?
Record (3 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 2 | Kallithea 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Kallithea in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Kallithea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Kallithea's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kallithea's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.49
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.23
1.00
Kallithea xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.00 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 6D 17L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Kallithea sit at 0.88 PPG from 34 outings (6W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.15 PPG, Kallithea on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 4W 4D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Kallithea have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.91 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Kallithea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 11W 6D 17L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 6W 12D 16L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Kallithea away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.94 PPG; Kallithea away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Kallithea runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC's record when hosting Kallithea specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
2
Draws
2
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kallithea?
From 4 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Kallithea have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Volos NFC 0-2 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Kallithea?
Kallithea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 41%, Kallithea 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Volos NFC) and 41% (Kallithea).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 41% of games; Kallithea in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Kallithea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 47% of Kallithea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Volos NFC's recent games and 41% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Kallithea tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kallithea cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kallithea beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.23 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kallithea outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Kallithea attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Kallithea 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 47%, Kallithea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kallithea's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.15 PPG, Kallithea 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.