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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC finished level at 2-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.65 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.76 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.64, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 13% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 64%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, AEK Athens FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights