PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAS Giannina face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 4 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 56% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 48% | Aris Thessalonikis 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.85 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.665 / defence 1.199 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.010 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.323. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 PAS Giannina games / 47 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 19% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 54%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 1.85. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 19% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG PAS Giannina 0.85 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.665 / def 1.199 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.010 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Aris Thessalonikis xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAS Giannina 0 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 19% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (7 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 4W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.67) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
19%
5.34
27%
3.68
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.45
1.60
Aris Thessalonikis xG
5.34
19%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
26.48
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.60 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 9W 19D 26L from 54 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 24W 9D 21L across 54 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 7W 8D 11L from 26 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 9W 19D 26L in their last 54 games (0.85 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 9D 21L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.12 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.92 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAS Giannina) and 46% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 31%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 42% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 46% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAS Giannina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 22, as PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.85 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.60 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 19% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 54%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.