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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAOK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 at Toumba Stadium, Championship Group - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.31 / defence 0.65 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.24 / defence 0.64, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 38% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 26%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 1.93 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights