PAOK 3-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAOK at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAOK face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (Championship Group - 3). Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
PAOK's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAOK, 1.80 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from PAOK's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for PAOK, 3 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Mar 2026, ended PAOK 0–0 Olympiakos Piraeus — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.312 / defence 0.653 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.242 / defence 0.640. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.312 — their 1.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.640, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling PAOK's projected output down. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack rating of 1.242, which lifts their away xG to 0.86. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.653), which is pulling Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52.
Result probabilities: PAOK 38% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 26%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.60 | Draw 2.84 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 20% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 3 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 38% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG PAOK 1.10 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.312 / def 0.653 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.242 / def 0.640 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: PAOK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 3 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Group - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 38% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.24x) against PAOK's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
38%
2.60
35%
2.84
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
PAOK xG
Total xG
1.96
0.86
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for PAOK and 0.86 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 35W 11D 14L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 41W 13D 6L from 60 games, 2.27 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for PAOK against 2.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 30 home games (20W 5D 5L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 6D 4L from their last 30 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.75 scored and 0.57 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 35W 11D 14L in their last 60 games (1.93 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 13D 6L in their last 60 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.17 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.20 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (PAOK) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (PAOK) and 37% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of PAOK's recent matches and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of PAOK's recent games and 37% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of PAOK's recent matches and 57% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 at Toumba Stadium, Championship Group - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.31 / defence 0.65 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.24 / defence 0.64, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 38% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 26%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.93 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.