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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 0.81 / defence 0.68 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.08 / defence 0.78, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 35% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 65%, Olympiakos Piraeus 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.86. Form was overturned, with PAOK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights