🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates PAOK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 18:30 UTC.

Current Form

PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

PAOK's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Toumba Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: PAOK 2W, Olympiakos Piraeus 4W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 2–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

PAOK — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 60% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 65% | Olympiakos Piraeus 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 0.812 / defence 0.678 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.080 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.249. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK's defence rating of 0.678 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 PAOK games / 31 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 35% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Olympiakos Piraeus (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights