PAOK vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host OFI at Toumba Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 2D 1L at Toumba Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAOK 1.90 PPG, OFI 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for PAOK, 3 for OFI and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 52% versus OFI 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 62% | OFI 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.75 xG and OFI 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.054 / defence 1.065 | OFI attack 1.094 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.022. Data: 35 PAOK games / 35 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 49% | Draw 26% | OFI 24%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | OFI 4.17. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | OFI 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 49% | Draw 26% | OFI 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG PAOK 1.75 / OFI 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.054 / def 1.065 | OFI attack 1.094 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: PAOK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.19
OFI xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs OFI kick off?
PAOK vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs OFI part of?
PAOK vs OFI is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 49% chance of winning, OFI a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both PAOK and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 5W | Draws 2 | OFI 3W.
What form are PAOK and OFI in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. OFI (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.05) and OFI's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.77
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.94
1.19
OFI xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
4%
23.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are PAOK and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for PAOK and 1.19 for OFI, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 42 games, going 24W 11D 7L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (17W 5D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 16W 4D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.36 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and OFI in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 24W 11D 7L in their last 42 games (1.98 PPG), while OFI have gone 17W 5D 20L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or OFI away?
PAOK's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.48 PPG; OFI away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PAOK or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
PAOK
2
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 5, OFI have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when OFI 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and OFI?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 38%, OFI 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for PAOK and 71% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAOK's recent matches and 57% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of PAOK's matches and 71% of OFI's.
Do PAOK and OFI tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, OFI in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.