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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat OFI 3-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.40 xG and OFI 0.69 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.27 / defence 0.69 against OFI attack 0.90 / defence 1.32, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 75% | Draw 16% | OFI 9%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 66%, OFI 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

OFI's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights