PAOK 1-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host OFI at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Toumbas — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for PAOK, 1 for OFI and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2024, ended 4–0 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
OFI in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 56% versus OFI 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | OFI 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.46 xG and OFI 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.036 / defence 0.869 | OFI attack 1.145 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.168. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 PAOK games / 34 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 43% | Draw 29% | OFI 29%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | OFI 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | OFI 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 43% | Draw 29% | OFI 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG PAOK 1.46 / OFI 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.036 / def 0.869 | OFI attack 1.145 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: PAOK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
OFI xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs OFI kick off?
PAOK vs OFI kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs OFI?
PAOK 1 - 2 OFI.
Where is PAOK vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs OFI part of?
PAOK vs OFI is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 43% chance of winning, OFI a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PAOK and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
Record (6 meetings): PAOK 3W | Draws 2 | OFI 1W.
What form are PAOK and OFI in?
PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. OFI (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about PAOK vs OFI?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.04) and OFI's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.49
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.62
1.16
OFI xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for PAOK and 1.16 for OFI, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 41 games, going 28W 7D 6L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.12 PPG from 41 outings (10W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 14W 3D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (2W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.17 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and OFI in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 28W 7D 6L in their last 41 games (2.22 PPG), while OFI have gone 10W 16D 15L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or OFI away?
PAOK's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.25 PPG; OFI away: 0.75 PPG.
Have PAOK or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, OFI in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PAOK
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and OFI?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 40%, OFI 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for PAOK and 65% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; OFI in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAOK's recent matches and 55% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of PAOK's matches and 65% of OFI's.
Do PAOK and OFI tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, OFI in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat PAOK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat PAOK 1-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.46 xG and OFI 1.16 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OFI outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against OFI attack 1.15 / defence 1.26, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 43% | Draw 29% | OFI 29%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, OFI 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.