Lamia 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Lamia welcome PAOK to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 0W 3D 7L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
PAOK — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour PAOK, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Lamia.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
PAOK trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 60% versus PAOK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lamia 67% | PAOK 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.70 xG and PAOK 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.731 / defence 1.026 | PAOK attack 1.322 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.198. Lamia's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Lamia games / 35 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 14% | Draw 27% | PAOK 58%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 7.14 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 1.72. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Lamia 40% | PAOK 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 14% | Draw 27% | PAOK 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Lamia 0.70 / PAOK 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.731 / def 1.026 | PAOK attack 1.322 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: PAOK (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.63
PAOK xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAOK kick off?
Lamia vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Lamia 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Lamia vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAOK part of?
Lamia vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 14% chance of winning, PAOK a 58% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lamia and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
Record (8 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 7W.
What form are Lamia and PAOK in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. PAOK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Lamia vs PAOK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.73x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
14%
6.93
27%
3.67
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.32
1.63
PAOK xG
6.93
14%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
3%
35.20
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Lamia and 1.63 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 10W 12D 23L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 30W 7D 8L from 45 games, 2.16 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 14W 4D 4L from 22 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.27 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAOK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAOK in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 10W 12D 23L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while PAOK have gone 30W 7D 8L in their last 45 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.05 PPG; PAOK away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Lamia or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, PAOK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 54%, PAOK 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Lamia and 64% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lamia's games and 68% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lamia's matches and 64% of PAOK's.
Do Lamia and PAOK tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, PAOK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Lamia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 1-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.70 xG and PAOK 1.63 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.73 / defence 1.03 against PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 0.87, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 14% | Draw 27% | PAOK 58%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 67%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.