🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Levadiakos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Levadiakos 3-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.11 xG and Levadiakos 0.76 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.28 / defence 0.61 against Levadiakos attack 1.12 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 68% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 11%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 62%, Levadiakos 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Levadiakos's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.55. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights