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Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Levadiakos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.34 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Levadiakos attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 42% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 33%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, Levadiakos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Levadiakos's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights