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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Lamia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Lamia 7-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.43 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 5.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Lamia attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 51% | Draw 27% | Lamia 22%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, Lamia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lamia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights