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Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out AEK Athens FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat AEK Athens FC 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.41 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.34 / defence 0.95 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 42% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 32%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 70%, AEK Athens FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 2.01 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights