🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat PAOK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat PAOK 1-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.34 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.13 / defence 1.05 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 39% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 34%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 66%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 2.09 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights