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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.95 xG and Volos NFC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.67 / defence 1.46 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 24% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 48%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 61%, Volos NFC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Volos NFC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.81 PPG, Volos NFC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights