Panserraikos vs PAOK – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Panserraikos 1-4 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.17 xG and PAOK 1.98 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against PAOK attack 1.38 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 21% | Draw 24% | PAOK 55%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 52%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

PAOK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights