Panserraikos vs PAOK – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 1.08x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.38x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
21%
4.74
24%
4.21
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
3.16
1.98
PAOK xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
34.48
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.98 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.