Panserraikos 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Panserraikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, PAOK are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Panserraikos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) — Panserraikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, PAOK edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Panserraikos 0–5 PAOK — a PAOK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 46% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 42% | PAOK 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.89 xG and PAOK 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.705 / defence 1.083 | PAOK attack 1.630 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.360. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. PAOK bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Panserraikos's projected output down. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.630, which lifts their away xG to 2.40. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 24 games and PAOK's last 50.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 11% | Draw 20% | PAOK 69%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 9.32 | Draw 5.04 | PAOK 1.44. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (69%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Panserraikos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 60% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 11% | Draw 20% | PAOK 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Panserraikos 0.89 / PAOK 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.705 / def 1.083 | PAOK attack 1.630 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: PAOK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
2.40
PAOK xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panserraikos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Panserraikos 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Panserraikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs PAOK part of?
Panserraikos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 11% chance of winning, PAOK a 69% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panserraikos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panserraikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.70x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.63x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 2.40.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 24 games and PAOK's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
11%
9.32
20%
5.04
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
3.29
2.40
PAOK xG
9.32
11%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
9%
11.03
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
1%
102.84
28%
3.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Panserraikos and 2.40 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 9D 10L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 17W 3D 4L from 24 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panserraikos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 11 home games (3W 6D 2L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 1D 3L from their last 11 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panserraikos are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.58 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Panserraikos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while PAOK have gone 17W 3D 4L in their last 24 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.36 PPG; PAOK away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, PAOK in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PAOK have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won PAOK 5-0 Panserraikos on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
0
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and PAOK?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: PAOK 4-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 64%, PAOK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panserraikos) and 73% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and PAOK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Panserraikos's games and 64% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panserraikos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Panserraikos's matches and 73% of PAOK's.
Do Panserraikos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 73% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panserraikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.89 xG and PAOK 2.40 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against PAOK attack 1.63 / defence 0.79, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 11% | Draw 20% | PAOK 69%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 42%, PAOK 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.