Atromitos 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamia at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Peristeriou plays host to Atromitos versus Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lamia are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Atromitos, 1 for Lamia and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lamia — key trading statistics (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 53% versus Lamia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 35% | Lamia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.20 xG and Lamia 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.741 / defence 1.095 | Lamia attack 1.146 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.352. Atromitos's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Atromitos games / 50 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 28% | Lamia 47%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Lamia 2.13. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Lamia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 28% | Lamia 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Atromitos 1.20 / Lamia 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.741 / def 1.095 | Lamia attack 1.146 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Lamia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Lamia xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Lamia kick off?
Atromitos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Atromitos 3 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Atromitos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Lamia part of?
Atromitos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 25% chance of winning, Lamia a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atromitos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
Record (7 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 5 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.74x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (1.15x) against Atromitos's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
25%
3.99
28%
3.57
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.90
1.70
Lamia xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
5%
21.72
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.70 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 20D 23L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 14W 21D 22L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Atromitos against 1.11 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (10W 12D 7L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 14D 11L from 29 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.00 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 20D 23L in their last 57 games (1.09 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 21D 22L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Lamia away?
Atromitos's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.45 PPG; Lamia away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Lamia?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 45%, Lamia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Atromitos) and 48% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 34% of games; Lamia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Atromitos's recent matches and 48% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Atromitos's recent games and 48% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Lamia tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Lamia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Lamia 3-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.20 xG and Lamia 1.70 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Lamia attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 25% | Draw 28% | Lamia 47%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Atromitos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 35%, Lamia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.09 PPG, Lamia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.