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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panserraikos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panserraikos 1-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.56 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.46 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.54, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 10% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 68%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 61%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights