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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panserraikos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos and Larisa finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.03 xG and Larisa 1.00 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 33% | Draw 35% | Larisa 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 58%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Larisa's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.87 PPG, Larisa 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights