Panserraikos 1-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Panserraikos take on Larisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panserraikos and Larisa meet at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Panserraikos (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Panserraikos have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Larisa's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Larisa have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Panserraikos. A 1.40 PPG lead over Larisa (1.80 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Panserraikos, 2 for Larisa and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2026, ended Panserraikos 1–0 Larisa — a Panserraikos win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Larisa — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 39% versus Larisa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 58% | Larisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.03 xG and Larisa 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.773 / defence 1.277 | Larisa attack 0.735 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Larisa's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Larisa's projected output up. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 52 games and Larisa's last 26.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 33% | Draw 35% | Larisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.00 | Draw 2.86 | Larisa 3.15. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 30% (last 10 home games) | Larisa 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 33% | Draw 35% | Larisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Panserraikos 1.03 / Larisa 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.773 / def 1.277 | Larisa attack 0.735 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Larisa xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs Larisa FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs Larisa kick off?
Panserraikos vs Larisa kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Panserraikos 1 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Panserraikos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Larisa part of?
Panserraikos vs Larisa is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 33% chance of winning, Larisa a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Panserraikos and Larisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Panserraikos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panserraikos's attack rating (0.77) and Larisa's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.73x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 52 games and Larisa's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
35%
2.86
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.03
1.00
Larisa xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs Larisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.00 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 7W 6D 18L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Larisa's form line: 4W 12D 15L from 31 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Panserraikos against 0.77 for Larisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 0.80 PPG from their last 15 home games (3W 3D 9L).
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 5D 8L from their last 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.87 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Current Season
Larisa
Current Season
Panserraikos (Home) vs Larisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Current Season
Larisa
Current Season
❓ Panserraikos vs Larisa Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 7W 6D 18L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 12D 15L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Larisa away?
Panserraikos's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 0.80 PPG; Larisa away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Panserraikos and Larisa, the earliest from October 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Larisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Panserraikos
1
Draws
2
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs Larisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Larisa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 1, Larisa have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Larisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Panserraikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Larisa?
Larisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 33%, Larisa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Panserraikos) and 47% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 67% of games; Larisa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs Larisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and Larisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 47% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panserraikos and Larisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Panserraikos's recent games and 47% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Larisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 73% of Larisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos and Larisa finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.03 xG and Larisa 1.00 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 33% | Draw 35% | Larisa 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 58%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.87 PPG, Larisa 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.