🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Panserraikos and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos and Lamia finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.87 xG and Lamia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.31 against Lamia attack 0.62 / defence 1.47, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 17%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 52%, Lamia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Lamia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.12 PPG, Lamia 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights