Panserraikos 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panserraikos at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Lamia travel to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to take on Panserraikos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 March 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panserraikos have posted 4W 3D 3L at Dimotiko Stadio Serron — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Panserraikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Panserraikos: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Panserraikos winning.
The historical record gives Panserraikos a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 51% versus Lamia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 52% | Lamia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.87 xG and Lamia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.999 / defence 1.309 | Lamia attack 0.618 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.094. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Panserraikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Panserraikos games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 17%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Lamia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Panserraikos (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panserraikos are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 60% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Panserraikos 1.87 / Lamia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.999 / def 1.309 | Lamia attack 0.618 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lamia xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panserraikos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Panserraikos 1 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Panserraikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Lamia part of?
Panserraikos vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 60% chance of winning, Lamia a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panserraikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Lamia?
Record (4 meetings): Panserraikos 4W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Panserraikos and Lamia in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 1.00x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
60%
1.65
22%
4.51
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.75
0.89
Lamia xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
3%
37.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Panserraikos and 0.89 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 15D 27L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 11W 13D 35L from 59 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.12 PPG, Lamia on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 7D 18L from 29 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panserraikos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.92 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Lamia have gone 11W 13D 35L in their last 59 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Lamia away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.48 PPG; Lamia away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panserraikos and Lamia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Panserraikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Panserraikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Lamia?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Lamia?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 59%, Lamia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Panserraikos) and 59% (Lamia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Panserraikos's games and 52% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Panserraikos's matches and 59% of Lamia's.
Do Panserraikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lamia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos and Lamia finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.87 xG and Lamia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.31 against Lamia attack 0.62 / defence 1.47, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 17%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 52%, Lamia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.12 PPG, Lamia 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.