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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Panetolikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Panetolikos 0-3 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.32 xG and PAOK 2.10 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against PAOK attack 1.37 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 23% | Draw 22% | PAOK 55%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 30%, PAOK 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights