Panetolikos 2-3 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panetolikos at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Panserraikos meet at Panetolikos Stadium in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 3). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Panetolikos have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Panserraikos have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Panetolikos have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Panserraikos managing 0 and 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Mar 2026, ended Panetolikos 0–0 Panserraikos — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Panetolikos an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 34% versus Panserraikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 33% | Panserraikos 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.40 xG and Panserraikos 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.862 / defence 1.234 | Panserraikos attack 0.788 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Panetolikos's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panserraikos's projected output up. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 52 games and Panserraikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 26%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.31 | Draw 3.23 | Panserraikos 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Panetolikos 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 40% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 3 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Panetolikos 1.40 / Panserraikos 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.862 / def 1.234 | Panserraikos attack 0.788 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Panserraikos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Panetolikos 2 - 3 Panserraikos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos part of?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 43% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Panetolikos and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panetolikos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.86x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.79x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 52 games and Panserraikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.23
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.43
1.03
Panserraikos xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.03 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 21W 15D 28L from 64 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 36L across 64 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.91 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 11W 4D 17L from their last 32 home games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 6W 4D 22L across their last 32 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.91 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
Panetolikos (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 games (1.22 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 15W 13D 36L in their last 64 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Panserraikos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.16 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Panetolikos and Panserraikos, the earliest from January 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won Panetolikos 3-0 Panserraikos on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
4
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 34%, Panserraikos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Panetolikos) and 66% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 44% of games; Panserraikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and Panserraikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 47% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panetolikos and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Panetolikos's recent games and 66% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 75% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Panetolikos 2-3 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.40 xG and Panserraikos 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Panserraikos outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Panserraikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Panserraikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 33%, Panserraikos 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Panserraikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.22 PPG, Panserraikos 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.