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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Panetolikos 2-3 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.40 xG and Panserraikos 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Panserraikos outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Panserraikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Panserraikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 33%, Panserraikos 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Panserraikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.22 PPG, Panserraikos 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights