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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panetolikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.33 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 32% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 30%, Olympiakos Piraeus 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights