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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panetolikos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 8, as Panetolikos and Larisa drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.18 xG and Larisa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Larisa attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 39% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, Larisa 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Larisa's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.03 PPG, Larisa 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights