🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Panetolikos (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panetolikos face Larisa.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Larisa make the trip to Panetolikos Stadium to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 8. The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Panetolikos (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Panetolikos Stadium, Panetolikos have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Panetolikos Stadium this season.

Larisa have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Larisa's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Panetolikos's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Panetolikos, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Larisa — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Panetolikos winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Panetolikos and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 42% versus Larisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Larisa 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.18 xG and Larisa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.882 / defence 1.203 | Larisa attack 0.739 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 26 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Panetolikos 39% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Larisa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 50% | Larisa 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights