Panetolikos 0-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Kifisia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panetolikos host Kifisia at Panetolikos Stadium in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 6). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Panetolikos — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Panetolikos have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Kifisia have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Kifisia away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Panetolikos: 3 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Kifisia, with 3 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2026, ended Panetolikos 0–0 Kifisia — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Panetolikos an edge — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Panetolikos in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Kifisia in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 42% versus Kifisia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 45% | Kifisia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.52 xG and Kifisia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.874 / defence 1.215 | Kifisia attack 0.830 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Panetolikos's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kifisia's projected output up. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 52 games and Kifisia's last 26.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 45% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 25%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.20 | Draw 3.38 | Kifisia 4.01. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Panetolikos 3 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 50% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 6 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 45% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Panetolikos 1.52 / Kifisia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.874 / def 1.215 | Kifisia attack 0.830 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kifisia xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs Kifisia FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs Kifisia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Kifisia kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Kifisia part of?
Panetolikos vs Kifisia is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 45% chance of winning, Kifisia a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Panetolikos and Kifisia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panetolikos vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.87) and Kifisia's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 52 games and Kifisia's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.38
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.59
1.07
Kifisia xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs Kifisia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.07 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 8W 7D 16L from 31 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Kifisia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 12L across 31 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.00 PPG, Kifisia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 4W 2D 9L from their last 15 home games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kifisia's away record stands at 2W 7D 6L across their last 15 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.10 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 61%.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Kifisia
Current Season
Panetolikos (Home) vs Kifisia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Current Season
Kifisia
Current Season
❓ Panetolikos vs Kifisia Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 8W 7D 16L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 6W 13D 12L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Kifisia away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.93 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kifisia have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Dec 2023, when Panetolikos won Panetolikos 3-0 Kifisia.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
3
Draws
2
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs Kifisia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Kifisia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 3, Kifisia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Kifisia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Kifisia 2-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Kifisia?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 53%, Kifisia 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Panetolikos and 60% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 40% of games; Kifisia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs Kifisia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and Kifisia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Panetolikos's games and 73% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panetolikos and Kifisia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Panetolikos's matches and 60% of Kifisia's.
Do Panetolikos and Kifisia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 80% of Kifisia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.52 xG and Kifisia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 45% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 25%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Kifisia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 45%, Kifisia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kifisia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Kifisia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.