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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.52 xG and Kifisia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 45% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 25%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Kifisia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 45%, Kifisia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kifisia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Kifisia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights