Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panathinaikos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium plays host to Panathinaikos versus PAOK in Super League 1 (Championship Group - 6). Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
Panathinaikos's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Panathinaikos's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, PAOK have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Panathinaikos, 1.60 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Panathinaikos, 3 for PAOK and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2026, ended Panathinaikos 0–0 PAOK — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 51% versus PAOK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 44% | PAOK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.49 xG and PAOK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.257 / defence 0.885 | PAOK attack 1.207 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack rating of 1.257 — their 1.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.207, which lifts their away xG to 1.14. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 52 games and PAOK's last 52.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 30% | PAOK 27%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.31 | Draw 3.37 | PAOK 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 50% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 6 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 30% | PAOK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.49 / PAOK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.257 / def 0.885 | PAOK attack 1.207 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.14
PAOK xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panathinaikos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Panathinaikos 2 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Panathinaikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs PAOK part of?
Panathinaikos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Group - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 43% chance of winning, PAOK a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panathinaikos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panathinaikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panathinaikos's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.21x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 52 games and PAOK's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.37
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.63
1.14
PAOK xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
6%
16.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.14 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 31W 17D 15L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 36W 13D 14L from 63 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.92 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 31 home games (19W 8D 4L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 15W 7D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.89 scored and 0.95 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into Panathinaikos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: PAOK in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
Panathinaikos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Panathinaikos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 31W 17D 15L in their last 63 games (1.75 PPG), while PAOK have gone 36W 13D 14L in their last 63 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or PAOK away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.10 PPG; PAOK away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, PAOK in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Panathinaikos and PAOK, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won PAOK 4-1 Panathinaikos on 15 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 4, PAOK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Panathinaikos 3-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 52%, PAOK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panathinaikos) and 68% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and PAOK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Panathinaikos's games and 64% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panathinaikos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 68% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 77% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and PAOK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Championship Group - 6, as Panathinaikos and PAOK drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.49 xG and PAOK 1.14 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.26 / defence 0.89 against PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 30% | PAOK 27%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 44%, PAOK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.75 PPG, PAOK 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.