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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out OFI 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat OFI 3-2 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.17 xG and OFI 0.73 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.00 / defence 0.70 against OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 23%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 53%, OFI 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

OFI's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights