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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.40 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.16 / defence 0.87 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 43%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.79 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights