Panathinaikos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 38%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.70 PPG clear of Panathinaikos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Panathinaikos lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 61% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.007 / defence 0.765 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.008 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.166. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Panathinaikos games / 34 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 38% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 38% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Panathinaikos 1.06 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.007 / def 0.765 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.008 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 38% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (6 meetings): Panathinaikos 3W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.01) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.01x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
38%
2.65
33%
3.04
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.96
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.90 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 24W 10D 10L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 21W 9D 14L from 44 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.64 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (13W 5D 4L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 24W 10D 10L in their last 44 games (1.86 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 9D 14L in their last 44 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.00 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Panathinaikos) and 32% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 46%; Aris Thessalonikis in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 9, as Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 38% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 61%, Aris Thessalonikis 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.86 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.