Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Volos NFC travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 10 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 32% | Volos NFC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.19 xG and Volos NFC 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.099 / defence 0.706 | Volos NFC attack 0.797 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 35 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 74% | Draw 19% | Volos NFC 7%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.35 | Draw 5.26 | Volos NFC 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (74%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 74% | Draw 19% | Volos NFC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 40% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.19 / Volos NFC 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.099 / def 0.706 | Volos NFC attack 0.797 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Volos NFC xG
40%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 74% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 7% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Record (10 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 8W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 3-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
74%
1.36
19%
5.21
7%
14.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.76
0.57
Volos NFC xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
14.06
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
42%
2.39
1%
125.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.57 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 26W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 9W 8D 24L from 41 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.15 PPG from 20 outings (13W 4D 3L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 4W 1D 15L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.95 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 10D 5L in their last 41 games (2.15 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 8D 24L in their last 41 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Volos NFC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.15 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, Volos NFC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Volos NFC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Olympiakos Piraeus 20% BTTS, Volos NFC 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 60% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Volos NFC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 50% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 60% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.