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Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Championship Group - 4, as Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.13 xG and PAOK 0.90 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.95 / defence 0.69 against PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 35% | PAOK 27%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

PAOK's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.23 PPG, PAOK 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights