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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Lamia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.46 / defence 0.81 against Lamia attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 63% | Draw 22% | Lamia 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 61%, Lamia 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lamia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights