Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Iraklis 1908 make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Iraklis 1908's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Iraklis 1908's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.52 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (2.30 vs 0.78) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Iraklis 1908 half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 22% versus Iraklis 1908 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 22% | Iraklis 1908 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.101 / defence 0.700 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.739 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 9 Iraklis 1908 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 66% | Draw 25% | Iraklis 1908 9%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52 | Draw 4.00 | Iraklis 1908 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Iraklis 1908's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Iraklis 1908 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 66% | Draw 25% | Iraklis 1908 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 35% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 / Iraklis 1908 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.101 / def 0.700 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.739 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Iraklis 1908 xG
35%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 66% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 9% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.10) and Iraklis 1908's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Iraklis 1908's attack (0.74x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.52.
These ratings are built from 35/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.8%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
66%
1.51
25%
4.06
9%
10.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.27
0.52
Iraklis 1908 xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
10.85
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
2%
62.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.52 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.44 PPG on a 7W 1D 1L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Iraklis 1908's form line: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Iraklis 1908 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Iraklis 1908.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Iraklis 1908
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 games (2.44 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Iraklis 1908 away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.25 PPG; Iraklis 1908 away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Iraklis 1908 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Iraklis 1908 in 22%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Iraklis 1908 tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 0%, Iraklis 1908 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 25% for Iraklis 1908.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 75% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 25% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.