🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Aris Thessalonikis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.82 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.38 / defence 0.77 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 24% | Aris Thessalonikis 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights