Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC encounter.

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Analysis

AEK Athens FC make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (Championship Group - 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Olympiakos Piraeus's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

AEK Athens FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with AEK Athens FC managing 1 and 1 draw.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Feb 2026, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 AEK Athens FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Olympiakos Piraeus an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Data

Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 40% versus AEK Athens FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | AEK Athens FC 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.945 / defence 0.632 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.381 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.381, which lifts their away xG to 0.93. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.632), which is pulling AEK Athens FC's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and AEK Athens FC's last 52.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 36% | Draw 35% | AEK Athens FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.76 | Draw 2.86 | AEK Athens FC 3.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Olympiakos Piraeus 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 20% (last 10 home games) | AEK Athens FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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