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Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Championship Group - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.94 / defence 0.63 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 36% | Draw 35% | AEK Athens FC 29%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, AEK Athens FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.29 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights